The autumn stretch: who’s hot, what’s next, and where the big guns point

The domestic Flat season is into its closing movements and the global stage is opening up. Between Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire Meeting (25–27 Sept), Arc weekend in Paris (Sun 5 Oct), Dubai Future Champions Festival at Newmarket (10–11 Oct), QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot (Sat 18 Oct), and the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar (Fri–Sat 31 Oct–1 Nov), there’s loads more action on the level to come.

Trainers setting the tone

Aidan O’Brien (Ballydoyle). Arrives off a red-hot fortnight: Scandinavia ground out the St Leger and Delacroix landed the Irish Champion, a one-two that keeps his year trending upward as Paris, Ascot and Del Mar loom. Expect typical late target-shaping and some horses not to go where the markets assume.

John & Thady Gosden. Mile and ten-furlong depth is real: Field Of Gold and Ombudsman headline their team; Trawlerman remains a staying giant should they want Ascot.

Charlie Appleby (Godolphin). Fresh North American “Win and You’re In”: Notable Speech booked a Mile ticket via the Woodbine Mile, a pathway Appleby knows inside out.

Karl Burke. Fallen Angel is a live mile option when the ground has ease; the yard’s fillies are battle-hardened and versatile.

France. Francis-Henri Graffard has Calandagan (fresh from the King George) on many shortlists; Christopher Head is loading quality juveniles Green Spirit (Boussac) and Nighttime (Lagardère).

Others to respect: William Haggas (emerging three-year-olds; watch entries like Aeolian), Owen Burrows (Anmaat entered up at Ascot), James Fanshawe (sprint depth; last year’s Sprint winner Kind Of Blue), and Harry Eustace (Docklands is deadly at Ascot).

What’s immediately ahead (and who fits)

Newmarket: Cambridgeshire Meeting (25–27 Sept)

The domestic hinge between summer and the championship run: Cambridgeshire Handicap plus Middle Park/Cheveley Park for the sharp two-year-olds; keep an eye on how juvenile pace translates on the Rowley Mile’s long last 2f. This meeting often decides whether certain 2yos head Paris/Newmarket again or are mothballed for spring.

ParisLongchamp: Arc day (Sun 5 Oct)

The Arc picture is unusually fluid. Fillies/mares again dominate market chatter with Minnie Hauk prominent, while Aventure has been the season-long metronome. Japan brings live bullets Croix Du Nord (JPN Derby winner; Prince d’Orange prep) and Byzantine Dream (Prix Foy), with Alohi Alii another improver parked at double-figures. Behind them, Whirl is still in the conversation depending on how she came out of her preps; Los Angeles’s Foy run knitted the form lines together without screaming “peak.” Bottom line: entries are wide, confidence thin, and late ground calls will decide a lot.

Also on the card: Abbaye, Foret, Opera, Cadran — traditional raiding points. If O’Brien divides resources, expect him to protect his premium Arc filly and still field depth in those ancillary Group 1s.

Newmarket: Dubai Future Champions Festival (10–11 Oct)

The definitive two-year-old filter. Dewhurst (G1, 7f) and Fillies’ Mile set 2000/1000 Guineas markets; Cesarewitch completes the Autumn Double. From France, Head has flagged Green Spirit and Nighttime for the Boussac/Lagardère on Arc Sunday; whichever travels or stays home will steer BC Juvenile plans. For Ireland, O’Brien’s latest mover Benvenuto Cellini advertised Classic credentials in the KPMG Champions Juvenile — watch where he aims next.

Ascot: QIPCO British Champions Day (Sat 18 Oct)

Usually runs soft; plan accordingly. The entry sheet is deep — think Calandagan, Delacroix, Ombudsman, Jan Brueghel among the top-rated across the five Group 1s — but the ground will promote stayers and tough types and discourage fast-ground milers. Note: the Long Distance Cup is upgraded to G1 and entries include Scandinavia/Illinois for Ballydoyle and Trawlerman for the Gosdens; the Sprint has Lazzat (FR) and domestic G1 scorers American Affair, Time For Sandals, No Half Measures in the mix; Fillies & Mares features Kalpana (defending), plus Minnie Hauk/Whirl as entries if they bypass or bounce out of Paris; and the QEII market revolves around Field Of Gold, with Docklands lurking as the specialist. There’s also a new £250k two-year-old conditions race to open the card. Expect tactical declarations at the 5-day stage with rain radar in one hand.

Del Mar: Breeders’ Cup (Fri–Sat 31 Oct–1 Nov)

Different surface profile, different questions. Appleby/Godolphin already have a Mile arrow: Notable Speech qualified via the Woodbine Mile and that yard’s BC strike-rate is obscene. From Ireland, Minnie Hauk remains the filly most likely to double-up (Turf/Filly & Mare Turf) if she comes out of Arc week thriving; Whirl is the other obvious turf mare if they split targets. The juvenile turf races (Friday) will crystallise off Lagardère/Boussac and Newmarket form; Europe typically travels deep here. Logistics matter: anything that swims at Ascot rarely flies to San Diego unless it’s bouncing.

Practical notes for players and planners

Markets lie in September. Several “ante-post certainties” won’t even run: watch entries + going first, not price. Racing Post’s current Arc read is that even the leaders have blemishes — that tells you plenty about risk.

Ground is king at Ascot. Many top-of-the-market types will be scratched if it turns holding; stables with depth (Ballydoyle, Gosdens, Appleby) can re-route at 48 hours’ notice.

Juvenile shape. Paris/Newmarket winners set the Breeders’ Cup Friday. Christopher Head’s pair are a live French axis; Ballydoyle’s latest mover Benvenuto Cellini gives O’Brien optionality at a mile.