Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2025 — field notes, live trends, and who’s holding aces

The first Sunday in October remains racing’s unofficial world championship, and this year’s Arc looks like a proper, deep renewal rather than a coronation. Trials day at ParisLongchamp re-shuffled the deck, Japan arrive with credible pace-and-stamina horses again, and the best of the Classic crop have actually stayed at 12f. The stage is Sunday 5 October at ParisLongchamp.

What the trials told us

Vermeille: Aventure finally bagged her Group 1, doing it the stylish way and confirming she’s a better mare again at five. She beat the Prix de Diane winner Gezora with Bedtime Story third, and firmed up as joint favourite for the Arc. She was runner-up in both the Vermeille and the Arc last year to Bluestocking, so the course-and-distance question was answered long ago. Christophe Ferland sounded exactly as relieved as you’d expect.

Niel: Godolphin’s Cualificar (second in the Jockey Club) booked his Arc ticket the professional way, getting the mile and a half on soft ground and looking stronger at the line than he had at Chantilly. It was a legit trial, not a jog.

Foy: The Japanese colt Byzantine Dream landed it with a proper finishing kick, putting away Sosie with Almaqam third and Los Angeles (last year’s Irish Derby) fourth. It sharpened a narrative we’ve heard before: Japan look dangerous again and are desperate to end their Arc hoodoo.

Leading chances (as they stand)

Aventure (5yo mare, Christophe Ferland) — Won the Vermeille “à la mode” and was second in last year’s Arc. Handles ease, travels, finds. If she draws low, she’s the one they all need to beat.

Minnie Hauk (3yo filly, Aidan O’Brien) — Epsom–Irish–Yorkshire Oaks treble tells you she has class, constitution, and Ryan Moore’s trust. Connections have floated a BC Turf after, but Arc first has been the drumbeat since June. The big filly angle is live again.

Cualificar (3yo colt, Andre Fabre) — Jockey Club runner-up and Niel winner on soft; progressive, uncomplicated, and the Longchamp 12f looks his lane. Fabre knows how to win this.

Byzantine Dream (4yo colt, Tomoyasu Sakaguchi) — Foy winner with gears and a finish; has tactical options and brings proper international form. Japan’s wait remains the sub-plot of every Arc.

Leffard (3yo colt, Jean-Claude Rouget) — Grand Prix de Paris winner with a late, long run; earned his “win-and-in” and has the Longchamp lanes sussed.

Kalpana (4yo filly, Andrew Balding) — Ran a huge second in the King George behind the ineligible Calandagan; September Stakes blip at Kempton but the Arc remains the Plan A. A clean prep and a draw inside eight would make her very interesting.

Gezora (3yo filly, Francis-Henri Graffard) — Diane winner; Vermeille second on return and connections openly tempted by going here rather than the Opéra. Stays, travels, lightly campaigned.

Los Angeles (4yo colt, Aidan O’Brien) — Last year’s Irish Derby hero; Foy run was workmanlike. Needs to rediscover mid-summer verve but is battle-hardened.

Japan’s second wave — Alohi Alii won the Guillaume d’Ornano and has had a Longchamp run; Croix Du Nord took the Prince d’Orange on soft. Both add depth to a raiding party with different running styles — important if the race collapses late.

Live trends that actually matter

Age/sex and the allowances

Three-year-olds still have the edge, and the recent winners’ roll has been kind to fillies and mares (Zarkava, Danedream, Treve, Enable, Alpinista, Bluestocking).

Draw
At Longchamp, being low is historically an advantage in big Arc fields. Since the late 1980s, stalls 2–7 have produced a disproportionate number of winners; nothing wider than 15 has scored this century. When the marble draw happens, treat anything 2–8 as gold dust, all else equal.

Ground/tempo

Arc trials day was soft; several key players handled it. But the Arc can swing from deep to quick within a fortnight. Aventure is proven with cut; Minnie Hauk has shown versatility; the Japanese team have consciously targeted horses with European ground profiles this time (note Alohi Alii’s Deauville win and subsequent soft-ground spin at Longchamp). Pace complexion is fluid, but if no honest gallop materialises, the verve horses (Camille Pissarro, Aventure) are favoured; if they blast, the grinders (Cualificar, some of the Japanese) come right into it.

Past winners (last 10)

2015 Golden Horn (John Gosden); 2016 Found (Aidan O'Brien); 2017 Enable (John Gosden); 2018 Enable (John Gosden); 2019 Waldgeist (Andre Fabre); 2020 Sottsass (Jean-Claude Rouget); 2021 Torquator Tasso (Marcel Weiss); 2022 Alpinista (Sir Mark Prescott); 2023 Ace Impact (Jean-Claude Rouget); 2024 Bluestocking (Ralph Beckett) (from stall 3, beating Aventure). Useful for the pattern spotters — plenty of 3yos, but the modern era has been very kind to top-class mares drawn low.

The key unknown

Final declarations and the draw. Low numbers can—and often do—decide tactics before the gates open.

Bottom line

On balance, Aventure sets the standard on course form and profile; Minnie Hauk brings the hottest Classic body of work; Cualificar is the progressive colt who handled the place on soft; Byzantine Dream is the fresh international who just proved he belongs on the track, at the trip. If the stalls put one of the big four in a coffin draw while handing a rival 2–6, don’t overthink it—history says that matters here.